Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:30 AM ET, January 17, 2025

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for the United Kingdom declined by 0.3% in November 2024 to 76.0 (2016=100), after rising by 0.1% in October. The LEI for the UK contracted by 0.5% over the six-month period between May and November 2024, after contracting by 0.8% over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for the United Kingdom rose by 0.1% in November 2024 to 106.8 (2016=100), following no change in October. Overall, the CEI for the UK grew by 0.8% over the six-month period between May and November 2024, a continuation of the 0.9% increase over the previous six-month period, from November 2023 to May 2024.

“The UK LEI pulled back slightly in November, reversing the small gains recorded in previous months,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “The decline was fueled by weaker weekly working hours, consumer expectations, stock prices, and the negative yield spread. Nonetheless, the UK LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates, while still negative given the downtrend since 2022, became more stable in recent months. The Index suggests that headwinds to growth, while still present, could moderate in the near term, potentially as the effects of the less restrictive monetary policy by the Bank of England propagate through the economy. The Conference Board currently estimates that the UK real GDP grew by 0.8% in 2024 and expects growth to reach 0.9% in 2025.”

The next release is scheduled for Wednesday, February 12, 2025, at 9:30 A.M. ET.