Global Leading Indicators

This month’s release of the composite economic indexes incorporates annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, increased by 0.2 percent in December 2022 to 115.9 (2016=100), after decreasing by 1.4 percent in November. The LEI rose by 0.6 percent in the six-month period from June to December 2022, an increase from the 0.3 percent growth over the six-month period from December 2021 to June 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, remained unchanged in December 2022 at 109.3 (2016=100), after an increase of 1.9 percent in November. The CEI grew by 3.5 percent in the six-month period between June and December 2022, an acceleration from its 2.5 percent growth in the previous six-month span.

“In Brazil, improving non-financial data drove the increase in the LEI, most notably consumer expectations, said Andrew Dearborn, Economic Research Assistant at The Conference Board. “However, uncertainty in the global economy as well as domestic uncertainties could still weigh on the economy. The Conference Board continues to forecast year-over-year real GDP growth to slow to 1.5 percent in 2022 before turning slightly negative in 2023.”

The trajectory of The Conference Board/ Fundação Getulio Vargas Brazil LEI improved somewhat

Positive changes in financial components to the LEI have roughly offset negative contributions from nonfinancial components over the last six months

The composite business cycle indexes pre- and post- benchmark revisions: 1996-present

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI): The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 6 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI) include: Swap Rate - 1 year*, Ibovespa - Bovespa Index, Manufacturing Survey - Expectations Index, Services Sector Survey - Expectations Index, Consumers Survey - Expectations Index, Terms of Trade – Index, Physical Production - Durables Consumer Goods – Index, and the Exports - Quantum - Index.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

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ABOUT FGV IBRE

Created in 1944, FGV is a Brazilian private higher education institution, think tank and producer of statistics, with a mission "to foster Brazil’s socioeconomic development." The Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) is FGV´s arm with the mission to produce and disseminate high-quality economic statistics and studies that are relevant to improve policies and private action in Brazil. www.fgv.br/ibre