As the White House negotiates with Mexico over tariffs of up to 25%, the cost of food should be a top consideration.

Cost of food in the crosshairs: Tariffs on Mexico will result in US importers paying higher prices for large shares of the vegetables, fruit and even meat consumed by those in the US. The US imports 59% of the fresh fruit and 35% of the fresh vegetables consumed, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

In 2023, Mexico and Canada supplied 51% and 2%, respectively, of US fresh fruit imports, and 69% and 20%, respectively, of US fresh vegetable imports in terms of value (see chart below). Imports of live animals, used for meat production, are also largely sourced from Mexico (28%) and Canada (49%).

The TCB take: Given the recent talk of the “price of eggs” and consumers’ focus on kitchen-table economic concerns, the impact of price hikes on grocery items deserves careful consideration. Supply-chains for perishable goods and live animals are complex and not easily modified or replaced with substitutions from economies at further geographic distances.