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An unprecendented drop in global GDP sets the stage for a slow and uneven recovery
The COVID-19 pandemic has radically changed the prospects of the global economy for the short-, the medium- and potentially for the long-term. In the short-term, as governments throughout the world introduce stringent measures limiting physical mobility and social activity to slow the spread of the virus and avert a health crisis, economic activity seriously contracted. This is leading to an unprecedented decline in global GDP during the first half of 2020. Rather than seeing a quick v-shaped recovery, the outlook assumes a more u-shaped pattern. The Conference Board currently estimates global GDP growth to fall at -4.5 percent for 2020 compared to 2019, which is an unprecedented decline for the post WW-II period. Medium-term, global GDP is expected to return to its pre-COVID-19 levels only by mid-2021, but for mature economies it is likely to last at least until the end of 2021 before output is fully recovered. Longer-term, beyond 2021, the outlook for the global economy is highly uncertain, and we have removed the 5- and 10 year outlook until The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook model will be fully recalibrated over the Summer.
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Publications (2019 release)
- StraightTalk® (global overview) (latest edition: July 2020)
- Main report (regional outlooks) (November 2019)
- Gulf Region Outlook (November 2019)
Past publications (2018 release)
- StraightTalk® (global overview)
- United States (November 2018)
- Europe (November 2018)
- Emerging Asia (November 2018)
- Japan (January 2019)
The next full release of the Global Economic Outlook (including new decadal projections) is scheduled to take place in October 2020.