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Global Economic Outlook - Home

OCTOBER 2019

Click on the chart to browse forecasts by country and region

Stagnating growth and stalling globalization: What's ahead?

The global economy took a big hit in 2019, and recession fears are widespread. We argue that the risk of a larger downturn—while not absent—will be contained, and the global economy will likely return to its slow, long-term growth trend of 2.7 percent sooner rather than later. The downturn in the industrial cycle will most likely ease and eventually bottom out. Consumers around the world will benefit from rising wages and low inflation rates while businesses continue to leverage innovation and digital transformation to grow top-line revenue and reduce costs to avoid a major squeeze on profits. However, the contribution of trade to global growth will lessen as businesses shorten value chains by “trading up” and “going local.” Productivity growth is critical to make up for the slack of slower globalization and weaker growth in the global workforce.

See press release "Global Economy Will Avoid Recession, and See Some Recovery in 2020".

View this infographic for a visual overview.

For members

  • To explore the Global Economic Outlook data, use the online data tool (including an option to download the data in excel format) available here.
  • Are you interested in getting in touch with our researchers behind the GEO model? Do you need someone to review your own growth model? If you would like to get in touch with us, please send an email to ted.geo@conference-board.org.

Publications (2019 release)

Past publications (2018 release)

Next update

The next quarterly updated of The Conference Board’s Global Economic Outlook is scheduled for mid-January 2020.

US – Japan Business Leaders Forum on Productivity 2019

For Productivity Dialogue Among Top Business Leaders of Japan, the US, and Germany.
April 12, 2019 | NYC
1st Business Leaders’ Forum on Productivity

Straight Talk October 2019

StraightTalk®Global Economic Outlook 2020: Stagnating Growth and Stalling Globalization: What's Ahead?

Global Economic Outlook - Data & Methods
Contact

Abdul A. Erumban
Senior Economist

Klaas de Vries
Economist

ted.geo@conference-board.org