The ETI is signaling continued job growth in the months ahead
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in September, following a slight decline in August. The index now stands at 110.97, up from 110.73 (an upward revision) in August. The increase marks a 0.7 percent gain in the ETI over the past 12 months.
“The Employment Trends Index still remains on a flat trend since the summer of 2018. The behavior of the ETI is consistent with a continued expansion of the labor market, but perhaps at a slower rate,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Market Institute. “Employment growth has clearly slowed in the past year, but the current pace of job creation remains strong enough to continue to tighten the labor market. The speed of hiring may slow a little in the coming months as a result of weakening business confidence and a tightening labor market.”
September’s increase was fueled by positive contributions from six of the eight components. From the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were: Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get,” Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry, Industrial Production, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, and the Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers.
The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:
- Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
- Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
- Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
- Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
- Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
- Job Openings (BLS)**
- Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
- Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**
*Statistical imputation for the recent month
**Statistical imputation for two most recent months
The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.
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Employment Trends Index (ETI)™ 2019 Publication Schedule (10 AM ET)