Job growth will continue, but may slow down in the coming months
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) decreased in October, following an increase in September. The index now stands at 110.11, down from 110.87 (a downward revision) in September. The decrease marks a 0.4 percent decline in the ETI over the past 12 months.
“The Employment Trends Index declined in October, with negative contributions from seven of its eight components. The index suggests that job growth may slow down a little in the coming months,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Market Institute. “Leading indicators of employment are sending a slightly gloomier message than Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report. Still, with solid growth in consumer and government spending, and housing, the economy is likely to continue generating new jobs at a healthy rate, despite low business confidence.”
October’s decrease was fueled by negative contributions from seven of the eight components. From the largest negative contributor to the smallest, these were: Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get,” the Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, Industrial Production, Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry, and Job Openings.
The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:
- Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
- Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
- Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
- Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
- Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
- Job Openings (BLS)**
- Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
- Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**
*Statistical imputation for the recent month
**Statistical imputation for two most recent months
The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.
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Employment Trends Index (ETI)™ 2019-2020 Publication Schedule (10 AM ET)