China Consumption Story—Quarterly Update: Q2 2019
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Publication Date:
September 10, 2019
In Q2 2019, most indicators pointed toward increasing pressure on consumption growth. Retail sales growth strengthened, but the recovery is unlikely to last. Although consumer sentiment remains strong, downward pressure in the labor market will continue to put pressure on incomes and, in turn, consumption. Consumers were cautious about borrowing. Low growth in property prices, weak property sales volumes, low growth in household loans, and a high debt service ratio combined to squeeze wealth-effect driven purchasing. We expect China’s consumption in the next quarter will continue to weaken.
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