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The most recent data available show that provincial economic risk levels generally decreased as of 2016. Heading into 2018, provincial risk levels are likely similar to YE16, or even moderately improved.
However, risk levels remain elevated vis-à-vis the long-term trend, and members should step up their regional market diligence in 2018 as monetary conditions begin to tighten and potentially exacerbate risks.
This chart deck presents our updated "Risk Composite Score“ analysis for China’s provinces. Scores indicate the comparative level of growth uncertainty: riskier provinces have a higher likelihood of growth slowdown or instability.