Global Economic Outlook 2024 to 2039: China Edition
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Global Economic Outlook

Global Economic Outlook 2024 to 2039: China Edition

10 December 2024 / Report

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While China’s growth slowdown is normal for a maturing economy, the country is currently facing a series of challenges that could yield prolonged, below-trend growth.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead

  • We forecast China’s real GDP to expand by 4.8% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025. There are several near-term downside risks to monitor: the ongoing property downturn; persistent weakness in domestic aggregate demand, and external uncertainties affecting exports.
  • Over the long-term, China’s potential GDP growth, a measure that assumes that labor and capital are employed at their maximum rates, will average 3.8% year-over-year from 2025 to 2039. This is far slower than the 7.3% pace over the decade prior to the pandemic. Such a slowdown in potential economic growth is normal for economies that are maturing. slowdown in potential economic growth is normal for economies that are maturing. 
  • The contribution from capital will moderate over the 2025-2039 period due to the falling rate of capital return. Meanwhile, the contribution from total factor productivity (TPF) is expected to gradually decline as China’s narrowing tech gap with advanced economies diminishes productivity dividends of catch-up growth. 
  • During the 2025-2039 period, labor quantity will continue to be a drag on growth because of the declining working-age population. However, labor quality will help to offset this thanks to the increasing average years of education of China’s labor force. 
  • China is likely to enter a prolonged period of below-potential growth as it deals with deep-rooted structural imbalances and the impact of geopolitical tensions. These headwinds are not only constraining consumption and capital growth, but could also severely damage China’s innovation capabilities, and therefore TFP performance. 

While China’s growth slowdown is normal for a maturing economy, the country is currently facing a series of challenges that could yield prolonged, below-trend growth.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead

  • We forecast China’s real GDP to expand by 4.8% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025. There are several near-term downside risks to monitor: the ongoing property downturn; persistent weakness in domestic aggregate demand, and external uncertainties affecting exports.
  • Over the long-term, China’s potential GDP growth, a measure that assumes that labor and capital are employed at their maximum rates, will average 3.8% year-over-year from 2025 to 2039. This is far slower than the 7.3% pace over the decade prior to the pandemic. Such a slowdown in potential economic growth is normal for economies that are maturing. slowdown in potential economic growth is normal for economies that are maturing. 
  • The contribution from capital will moderate over the 2025-2039 period due to the falling rate of capital return. Meanwhile, the contribution from total factor productivity (TPF) is expected to gradually decline as China’s narrowing tech gap with advanced economies diminishes productivity dividends of catch-up growth. 
  • During the 2025-2039 period, labor quantity will continue to be a drag on growth because of the declining working-age population. However, labor quality will help to offset this thanks to the increasing average years of education of China’s labor force. 
  • China is likely to enter a prolonged period of below-potential growth as it deals with deep-rooted structural imbalances and the impact of geopolitical tensions. These headwinds are not only constraining consumption and capital growth, but could also severely damage China’s innovation capabilities, and therefore TFP performance. 

Authors

Alfredo Montufar-Helu

Alfredo Montufar-Helu Alfredo Montufar-Helu

Senior Advisor
The Conference Board

Fiona Liu

Fiona Liu Fiona Liu

Economist
The Conference Board

Read Bio

Minji Xie

Minji Xie Minji Xie

Senior Researcher, China Center for Economics and …
The Conference Board

Read Bio

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