Risks to US outlook are tilted to the downside

The US economy appears to be on the precipice of recession. The Federal Reserve is rapidly raising interest rates to cool high inflation by reducing demand from consumers and businesses. This will likely tip the US into a brief and shallow contraction that is felt throughout the entire economy.  

However, there remain a plethora of risks to this outlook. Chief among them are uncertainty surrounding inflation, interest rates, the housing market, and government infrastructure spending. According to new research conducted by the Conference Board, the potential for further downside to US economic growth resulting from these risks outweigh the upside potential. Said another way, the recession we forecast could be less shallow and less brief than anticipated. 

For more information on risks to US and global economic growth please see our new report StraightTalk® – Wide Bands of Uncertainty (link).