Economic Forecast for the US Economy
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Economic Forecast for the US Economy

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Delicate State of Stasis

Higher tariffs are set to weigh on real GDP growth in H2 2025 and H1 2026 after already trimming growth in H1 2025, as consumers bear the brunt of higher prices. TCB estimates the bulk of tariff impacts will affect Q4, Q1, and Q3 of 2026. Fiscal policy is projected to only partially and modestly offset the negative impact from tariffs.

 

The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the US Economy

September 12, 2025

Delicate State of Stasis

Higher tariffs are set to weigh on real GDP growth in H2 2025 and H1 2026 after already trimming growth in H1 2025, as consumers bear the brunt of higher prices. TCB estimates the bulk of tariff impacts will affect Q4, Q1, and Q3 of 2026. Fiscal policy is projected to only partially and modestly offset the negative impact from tariffs.

 

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