Emerging Markets Forecast Update

Economic growth remains moderate, but with few signs of recession 

Emerging economies grew rapidly in 2021 – rebounding by an estimated 6.7 percent annual rate following the pandemic-induced recession in 2020. However, GDP growth is likely to moderate to 2.9 percent in 2022 and to 2.7 in 2023.  

Aggregate Emerging Markets purchasing manager indices moved back into expansionary territory, above the 50 percent threshold, in June. The increase was largely driven by a rebound in services sector activity in Russia and China while indicators for other economies suggest continued momentum. 

Commodity prices have eased in recent weeks, in particular for oil, metals such as copper and iron, and agricultural commodities such as wheat and timber. This has fueled fears of a looming recession. While oil prices may continue falling, prices for most other commodities are expected to remain volatile. 

See Economy Watch: Emerging Markets View (July 2022).