The Future of US Vehicle Electrification and GHG Emissions
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The Future of US Vehicle Electrification and GHG Emissions

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CEO Insight Minute: How Much Will Switching to Electric Vehicles Reduce GHGs?

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CEO Insight Minute: How Much Will Switching to Electric Vehicles Reduce GHGs?

Because a lot of gas-powered cars are likely to remain on the road, overall transportation emissions may only fall by roughly half by 2040.

Increasing the share of electric vehicles (EVs) sold in the US from 5.6 percent in 2022 to 100 percent in 2040 would likely only increase the combined total share of electric cars and trucks on the road to 60 percent by 2040.1 Unless this adoption rate accelerates significantly, businesses will have to manage their operations in a bifurcated and rapidly changing market environment. Based on our projections, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation would still be substantial by 2040.

[1] Dan Mihalascu, EVs Made Up 5.6 Percent of US Car Market in 2022 Driven by Tesla, Inside EVs, February 20, 2023.

Increasing the share of electric vehicles (EVs) sold in the US from 5.6 percent in 2022 to 100 percent in 2040 would likely only increase the combined total share of electric cars and trucks on the road to 60 percent by 2040.1 Unless this adoption rate accelerates significantly, businesses will have to manage their operations in a bifurcated and rapidly changing market environment. Based on our projections, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation would still be substantial by 2040.

[1] Dan Mihalascu, EVs Made Up 5.6 Percent of US Car Market in 2022 Driven by Tesla, Inside EVs, February 20, 2023.
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Author

Alexander Heil, PhD

Alexander Heil, PhD Alexander Heil, PhD

Senior Economist, ESF Center
The Conference Board

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