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13 June 2024 / Brief
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Copy LinkThe Conference Board's real GDP forecast for the Global Economy improved marginally to 3.1% year-over-year for 2024 from 3%, while projections for 2025 remained unchanged at 3.1%. Overall, we still anticipate stabilization of global growth going forward, which will be below the 3.5% average over the decade before the pandemic.
We project that Mature Economies will grow by 1.4% in 2024 and 1.6% In 2025, unchanged from our May forecast update.
The US economy started 2024 on a softer note than anticipated as elevated inflation and interest rates continued to weigh on the economy. As a result, our 2024 growth forecast slipped by 0.2 percentage points to 1.9%. US consumer spending held up remarkably well in 2023 despite numerous headwinds, but this trend has begun to wane. Real consumer spending growth is in retreat, and consumers’ expectations about the future suggest a weaker growth ahead. Gains in real disposable personal income growth are softening, pandemic savings have been exhausted, and household debt is increasing rapidly. While we do not forecast a recession in 2024, we do expect consume
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