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23 October 2024 / Article
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Copy LinkThe Conference Board's real GDP forecast for the Global Economy was unchanged at 3.1% for 2024 and 3.1% for 2025. However, our projections for several major economies have changed over the last month.
US economic activity is poised to moderate slightly toward the end of 2024, but not to the degree that we previously forecasted. Recently revised data showed that US real GDP grew at a robust 3.0% quarterly annualized rate in Q2 2024. Additionally, revised data show that consumer spending and income have been growing at a faster pace than previously reported. Healthy consumer spending and a surge in inventory building ahead of the East- and Gulf-Coast port strikes prompted an upgrade to our Q3 2024 real GDP growth estimate.
Still, we continue to anticipate some growth deceleration in Q4 2024. There may be a slow start to Q4 real GDP growth due to consecutive natural disasters, but the weakness likely will be reversed in coming months as rebuilding efforts take shape. Consumer spending activity is likely to also lose some momentum as the mix between goods and services buying becomes more balanced, and households continue to reallocate s
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