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13 March 2025 / Article
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The Conference Board's real GDP forecast for the global economy shows deceleration over the next two years.
Looking back, our estimate of 2024 global growth improved by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.2% y/y (year-on-year) on the back of better-than-expected national accounts data from several economies last year. However, we forecast that 2025 growth will slow slightly to 3.1% y/y and that 2026 growth will slow further to 2.9% y/y.
Numerous economies saw changes to their outlook this month, but a downgrade to the US forecast pushed the global growth outlook slightly lower. China’s growth outlook improved slightly for 2025 due to recently announced government stimulus measures, but our forecasts for Mexico and Canada were lowered in large part due to the proposed or implemented tariffs by the current US administration.
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