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15 January 2025 / Article
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The Conference Board's real GDP forecast for the Global Economy was unchanged at 3.1% year-over-year for 2024 but ticked up by 0.1 percentage point to a healthy 3.1% in 2025. Our forecast for 2026 is 3.0%.
A number of economies saw changes to their outlook this month, but upgrades to the US forecast helped to push the global growth rate slightly higher. Among Advanced Economies, the US is forecasted to grow the most rapidly over the next year and contribute the most to global GDP. Much of this is due to US consumer strength heading into H1 2025. However, Emerging Economies (especially China and India) will continue to be the largest drivers of global growth. While we do expect GDP growth in China to moderate over the coming year, fiscal and monetary stimulus should limit the deceleration.
US election outcome uncertainty has lifted, but the unpredictability of the incoming administration policies still looms. While the US economy is set to start 2025 on strong footing after a year of surprisingly robust growth, a combination of proposed policies will likely weigh on growth and leave inflation elevated as the year
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