- Recession odds have risen, but are still moderate 35% chance
- Financial markets are repricing to lower growth expectations
- We continue to see sluggish GDP growth for this year (1.6 percent) and 2012 (1.8 percent)
- Current financial market tumult reflects sovereign credit risk, which is an outgrowth of the private credit crisis of 2008–2009
- In near term, policy help can only come from central banks, but with little room to maneuver
