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The Conference Board Economics Watch® United States View

  • Recession odds have risen, but are still moderate 35% chance
  • Financial markets are repricing to lower growth expectations
  • We continue to see sluggish GDP growth for this year (1.6 percent) and 2012 (1.8 percent)
  • Current financial market tumult reflects sovereign credit risk, which is an outgrowth of the private credit crisis of 2008–2009
  • In near term, policy help can only come from central banks, but with little room to maneuver

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