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Tracking Business Cycles in Brazil with Composite Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators

This working paper details how The Conference Board economic indexes for Brazil were created.

Brazil is an important part of both the G-20 major economies and the emerging markets that are increasingly taking a larger share of the global economy and driving its growth. In this paper, the authors discuss how the creation of coincident and leading indexes of economic activity for Brazil followed the approach used by The Conference Board. Using the coincident index as the target variable, the authors use a small set of leading indicators to show how the composite index helps predict turning points in the business cycle better than its individual components.

This working paper is complimentary.