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Global Growth Projections for The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2017

This paper presents the methodology for The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2017, including projections for 11 major regions and individual estimates for 33 mature and 32 emerging market economies for 2017, 2017–2022, and 2022–2026. The projections are based primarily on a supply-side growth accounting model that estimates the contributions of the use of labor and capital inputs as well as total factor productivity growth to the growth of real GDP. The model also considers demand-side elements such as savings, and socioeconomic variables such as life expectancy and educational attainment. We also incorporate measures of globalization, where the demand-side indicators exports and imports enter as key elements, and include adjustments for the impact of rapidly falling prices of ICT goods on investment and GDP. We adjusted the resulting trend growth rates for possible deviations between actual and potential output in the short run.

This working paper is complimentary.