The Conference Board Economics Watch^® United States View

While the US economy continues to stand on relatively firm ground compared to many other large economies, GDP growth is converging toward its long-run trend of 2 percent. Factors influencing economic growth in the short term include slightly softer but still solid consumption and job growth trends, weakening business investment, a pickup in residential investment, and continued monetary easing. Leading economic indicators do not suggest that a recession is on the horizon, but potential geopolitical or geoeconomic shocks do present risks. In the medium term, we expect the US economy to continue growing at 2 percent, supported by a significant revival in productivity growth.