China View: More pro-growth policy measures expected in early 2020

December 2019 | November Data Release

The short-term growth outlook is improving modestly according to The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for China. Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth remains weak. Policy-backed investment growth is anticipated in 2020, focusing on the manufacturing and infrastructure segments. Retail sales growth appears to be gaining momentum, posting a strong increase in November. But downward pressures on consumption growth remain strong as a function of slowing household income growth, increasing debt repayment burdens, and sluggish employment growth. Export growth remains weak. While a Phase 1 trade deal between the US and China may help restore some business confidence in China, China’s export outlook primarily depends on an improvement in global growth. We expect global growth to improve slightly in 2020 as the multiyear slowdown in industrial production bottoms out.