Industry Recession Risk Matrix: Which Industries May Suffer Most in Downturn?

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Industry Recession Risk Matrix: Which Industries May Suffer Most in Downturn?

06 September 2023 / Article

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CEO Insight Minute: In a US Recession, Which Industries Would Suffer Most?

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CEO Insight Minute: In a US Recession, Which Industries Would Suffer Most?

The answer depends on your industry’s unique risk profile, as the drivers of the coming economic pain are multifaceted.

During the anticipated US recession, economic pain is expected to vary widely by industry. The Conference Board Industry Recession Risk Matrix, which uses multiple indicators that gauge recession risks across industries, estimates that personal and other services, construction, and transportation and warehousing services may be at the greatest risk of contraction in a downturn. Federal government, mining and logging, private education services, and health care and social assistance may be the least at risk.

Trusted Insights for What's Ahead™

Industries with a high exposure to discretionary consumer spending are estimated to have a high risk of downturn during the projected recession.
Transportation and warehousing is a high-risk industry.
The construction industry may see more pain ahead.
Federal government, mining, private education, and health and social assistance are less exposed to recession risk.
The postrecession recovery will vary by industry.

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