Policy Backgrounders

Ukraine Developments and Prospects Ahead of Winter

October 10, 2024

Key Insights

As summer turns to fall, both Ukraine and Russia are fighting hard for military advantages before winter. Ukraine’s recent battlefield struggles are also leading to pressure for negotiations, but Ukraine is responding with a “victory plan” focused on permitting military strikes deep inside Russia.

• Ukraine has maintained its hold in the Kursk area of Russia but is slowly losing ground along a broad front—though at an enormous cost to Russia in casualties.
• Ukraine’s “victory plan”—which promotes long-range strikes in Russia and security guarantees—has not received the endorsement of the US, and NATO Allies are divided about how far to go in permitting long-range strikes in Russia using Western weapons.
• A Chinese-Brazilian peace plan, which would start negotiations with no preconditions for return of Ukrainian territory, will come into increased focus over the next month as Brazil prepares to host the G-20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro in November.