With the first wave of COVID-19 cases beginning to recede, social distancing policies are being lifted in various parts of the country. Behavioral and policy mistakes could risk a second wave of infections that would interrupt any economic recovery. April and May economic indicators are showing unprecedented declines stemming from the lockdown, but we suspect that many of these data points are near their bottoms and will improve in the months ahead. The rate of improvement, however, is a critical but difficult to answer question. The Conference Board forecasts three distinct recovery scenarios for the US economy in 2020, yielding annual economic contractions of -4.0 to -7.2 percent in 2020 compared to 2019.