Steady improvements in economic indicators in recent months point to a stronger than expected economic rebound over the summer despite a resurgence in COVID-19 cases. However, the pandemic-induced lockdown in March and April yielded a supply-side shock that is now transforming into a demand shock. High unemployment rates, low consumer confidence, and income disruptions are likely to limit consumer spending later in the year. The path to economic recovery remains uncertain amid limited business investment and other factors that would stimulate growth. The Conference Board’s base case scenario for the US economy is a contraction of 3.8 percent in 2020 compared to 2019. Recovery to pre-crisis levels is likely to take another year or more.