The Conference Board China Economy Watch (Sep 2020 Data)
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Economy Watch | China

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The Conference Board China Economy Watch (Sep 2020 Data)

November 02, 2020 | Article

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  • Impact of COVID-19 Crisis on the Chinese Economy – China’s GDP growth accelerated to from 3.2 percent y-o-y in Q2 to 4.9 percent in Q3. The consumption recovery still lags industrial production growth by a wide margin. To restore pre-COVID economic normalcy, consumption and services growth must substantially recover. Pandemic impacts, though diminishing, will continue to drag on growth into 2021. China’s economic recovery should nonetheless sustain through 2021, but growth momentum will likely be weaker than Q2 and Q3 of this year.
  • Investment Trends – In September, YTD Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) growth turned positive for the first time this year. Very strong corporate loan growth in recent months should extend FAI recovery over the short term. Housing market data in September suggest property investment growth is peaking. Growth in infrastructure investment is moderating, but we still expect a strong rebound in infrastructure investment in 2021.
  • Consumption Trends – Retail sales growth accelerated in August and September. Demand in consumer services is picking up. But, due to the slow labor market recovery, and its impact on household income growth, household spending growth will remain sub-par over the short term.  
  • Trade Trends – China’s trade data remain upbeat, but the near-term outlook is clouded by strong COVID resurgence globally. In October, the PBOC took steps to curb RMB appreciation. This should cap the rally in the RMB that has persisted since May

Implications for Business

With public life nearly back to normal in most parts of China, the country’s economic recovery is entering a second stage. The trajectory looking forward will depend mostly on consumption and the restart and new es

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AUTHOR

YuanGao

Yuan Gao

Former Senior Economist, China Center for Economics and Business
The Conference Board

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