Adjusting for 2020 base effects, January-February 2021 data indicate softening consumption and investment growth amidst continuing strong industrial production. Strong external demand and rising prices, in part, are driving industrial production. Some overheating may also be in play.  Regulators have strongly signaled their intention to taper stimulus and “normalize” monetary and fiscal policy. Monetary and fiscal support will almost certainly decrease from 2020 levels as regulators focus on reducing aggregate leverage and de-risking financial system hazards. This policy shift should see real estate investment growth slow and infrastructure investment growth remain subdued.