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Monthly update of The Conference Board's forecast for the US economy
The US economy enters the final stretch of 2025 amid a mixture of relief and renewed uncertainty. The conclusion of the record 43-day federal government shutdown will restore key government functions and resume the flow of economic data critical to businesses and policymakers. However, it could take days — and in some cases a week or even months — before normal operations resume. While the immediate damage to output appears limited, the shutdown’s ripple effects, including delayed spending, suspended contracts, and data distortions—are expected to weigh on Q4 2025 growth. We estimate the shutdown could shave roughly 0.5pp off of GDP growth in the quarter, but most of it will likely be recovered in the beginning of 2026. Turning the Corner: Shutdown Ends, Growth Uncertainty Persists
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Preliminary PMI indices show no change in weak DM growth momentum in November
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Passing increases downstream, cutting costs, and absorbing price increases into profit margins are the chief ways to manage rising input costs. Few see changing
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US continues to lead global productivity race
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The Global Economic Fallout of the Ukraine Invasion
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The global supply chain disruption associated with the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in production delays, shortages, and a spike in inflation in world.
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The Conference Board recently released its updated 2022 Global Economic Outlook.
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November 05, 2025
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PRESS RELEASE
The LEI for Germany Decreased in September
November 14, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Brazil Increased in October
November 13, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
The LEI for France Increased in September
November 13, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Australia Unchanged in September
November 12, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for the UK declined in September
November 11, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Japan Declined in September
November 11, 2025
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Note: Due to the US federal government shutdown, all further releases for The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI), The Conference Board-Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® Index (HWOL Index), The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® of the US (US LEI) and The Conference Board Global Leading Economic Index® (Global LEI) data may be delayed. TCB will resume publication once updated US federal government data are released.
Global growth is expected to slow over the next decade relative to the prior ten years.
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