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14 January 2026 / Article
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Copy LinkThe US economy entered 2026 amid heightened uncertainty around evolving policy decisions. While The Conference Board maintains expectations of slower growth through late 2025 and early 2026 because of tariffs, there are sizable risks both to the upside and downside. Nevertheless, the projections for both years were upgraded following the publication of an outsized real GDP gain in Q3 2025 and a sharp narrowing in the trade deficit at the start of Q4 2025. Inventories likely experienced a sizable drawdown in H2 2025. However, missing data, due to the federal government shutdown, obscures real economic activity. This in turn complicates forecasting the evolution of the economy in 2026.Policy Crosswinds Raise Uncertainties around Growth Forecast
Fiscal policy will deliver mixed effects next year: growth support from accelerated depreciation and tax cuts will be partially offset by reduced green investment and cuts to Medicaid and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).
The monetary policy outlook will depend heavily on the composition of the Fed under a new chairperson. Recent events related to Fed independence may complicate new policymakers’ appointments this year and therefore increase the bands around possible interest rate outcomes.
The mid-term elections at the end of the year could prompt some federal government stimulus to address “affordability” concerns, creating upside risks to growth. Recent housing affordability initiatives and proposals to cap interest rates on consumer credit cards may result in unintended consequences for growth. Meanwhile, widespread hiring freezes and recent announced layoffs create downside risks to the current low-churn equilibrium in the labor
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PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Spain Increased in November
January 14, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Japan inched up in November
January 12, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for South Korea Inched Up in November
January 08, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
US Consumer Confidence Fell Again in December
December 23, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for China Declined in November
December 22, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for India Increased in November
December 19, 2025
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Note: Due to the US federal government shutdown, all further releases for The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI), The Conference Board-Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® Index (HWOL Index), The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® of the US (US LEI) and The Conference Board Global Leading Economic Index® (Global LEI) data may be delayed.
This report identifies trends to help businesses prepare for an environment with more challenges for labor and capital but improvements in productivity growth.
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