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10 August 2026 / Report
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Copy LinkThe U.S. economy entered H2 2026 with a more uneven growth profile. One of the defining features of this expansion is the gradual shift toward investment-led growth. Throughout the post-pandemic recovery, household consumption was the primary driver of economic activity. As household affordability becomes increasingly constrained, that leadership is shifting to business investment in productivity-enhancing technologies.U.S. Outlook: Investment Carries Growth as Consumer Affordability Bites
At the macro level, productivity gains from AI are apparent in GDP and in productivity defined by non-farm business output divided by aggregate hours worked. However, for companies and workers, the magnitude of the productivity gains generated by this investment remains uncertain. Still, the growth transition should allow the economy to continue expanding despite softer consumer spending, although the resulting growth profile is likely to remain uneven across industries.
Official data indicate that inflation has moderated, although households continue to face elevated living costs. Inflation has improved, but affordability has not. Consumers continue to face substantially higher living costs than prior to the pandemic due to elevated prices. Housing expenses remain high, homeowner insurance premiums continue to rise rapidly in many parts of the country, financing costs remain restrictive, and cumulative inflation has permanently raised the cost of many essential goods and se
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PRESS RELEASE
The LEI for France Inched Up in June
August 19, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Mexico Contracted in July
August 19, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
The LEI for the Euro Area ticked down in July
August 18, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Brazil decreased slightly in July
August 14, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
The LEI for the UK fell again in June
August 13, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Australia Increased Again in June
August 13, 2026
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
This report identifies trends to help businesses prepare for an environment with more challenges for labor and capital but improvements in productivity growth.
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