Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:30 AM ET, October 11, 2024

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for the United Kingdom remained unchanged in August 2024 at 75.2 (2016=100), following a 0.3 percent decline in July. The LEI for the UK contracted by 0.9% over the six-month period between February and August 2024, after contracting by 1.4% over the previous six-month period.  

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for the United Kingdom rose by 0.2% in August 2024 to 105.6 (2016=100), following another increase of 0.2% in July. Overall, the CEI for the UK grew by 1.1 percent over the six-month period between February and August 2024, a much higher rate than the 0.1 percent increase over the previous six-month period between August 2023 and February 2024.

“The UK LEI held steady in August following a series of successive declines over the previous six months,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “As in previous months, the weakness was driven by the negative yield spread, in addition to labor market components, like unemployment claims and working hours. However, for the third month in a row, consumers’ assessment of economic conditions and housing sales expectations improved after having weighed on the Index for much of the past two and a half years. The LEI’s annual growth rate, though still negative, has improved substantially since the beginning of the year, indicating still that headwinds to growth may be lessening. Overall, The Conference Board expects the UK economy to continue to expand at a moderate pace in the second half of 2024, with annual growth reaching 1% in 2024.”

The next release is scheduled for Monday, November 11, 2024, at 9:30 A.M. ET.