Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the United Kingdom decreased by 0.1 percent in April 2022 to 83.1 (2016=100), following a 0.1 percent decrease in March 2022. However, the LEI grew by 1.1 percent in the six-month period from October 2021 to April 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for the United Kingdom increased by 0.1 percent in April 2022 to 104.3 (2016=100), following a 0.1 increase in March 2022. The CEI grew by 0.5 percent in the six-month period from October 2021 to April 2022.

“The UK LEI decreased again in April driven by worsening confidence in the general economic situation,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “High inflation, monetary policy tightening, and supply chain disruptions are creating headwinds for the economic outlook in the UK as well as globally. The Conference Board projects real GDP growth of 3.5 percent year over year in 2022, a downgrade of about one percentage point compared to forecasts made before the war in Ukraine.” 

The UK LEI declined again in April reflecting increasing headwinds from inflation, supply chain disruptions, and monetary policy tightening

The year over year growth rate of the LEI points to increasing risks to the outlook in 2022

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for The United Kingdom: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 11 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for The United Kingdom include: Unemployment Claimant Counts, Weekly Working Hours, General Economic Situation, Stock Prices, Yield Spread, Productivity, Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations, Housing Sales Expectation.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/    

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