Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the United Kingdom decreased by 0.6 percent in June to 81.6 (2016=100), following a 0.6 percent decline in May. The LEI contracted by 1.4 percent in the first half of 2022, a reversal from the 2.0 percent increase over the second half of 2021.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for the United Kingdom ticked up by 0.1 percent in June to 104.8 (2016=100), following a 0.3 percent increase in May. The CEI grew by 1.1 percent in the six-month period from December 2021 to June 2022, after being flat over the previous six-month period.

“The fourth consecutive decline of the UK LEI in June points to rising recession risks in the second half of 2022 and early 2023,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Eroding consumer sentiment about the general economic situation along with pessimism about housing sales, were the major drivers of the decline. Amid high inflation, tighter monetary policy, and rising uncertainty, The Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth of 3.6 percent year-over-year in 2022, and the projection for 2023 was downgraded to a downturn of -0.6 percent.” 

The UK LEI declined in June for the fourth consecutive month, signaling a slowdown in growth for the near term

Eroding consumer confidence and housing sales expectations were the main drivers of the widespread decline 

The declining year-over-year growth rate of the LEI reflects increasing headwinds for 2022 and early 2023

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for The United Kingdom: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 11 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for The United Kingdom include: Unemployment Claimant Counts, Weekly Working Hours, General Economic Situation, Stock Prices, Yield Spread, Productivity, Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations, Housing Sales Expectation.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

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