Global Leading Indicators

New York, May 16, 2022…The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the United Kingdom decreased by 0.2 percent in March 2022 to 83.1 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.1 percent in February 2022. The LEI grew by 1.5 percent in the six-month period from September 2021 to March 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for the United Kingdom decreased by 0.1 percent in March 2022 to 103.9 (2016=100), following a 0.1 increase in February 2022. The CEI remained unchanged in the six-month period from September 2021 to March 2022.

“The UK LEI fell in March primarily due to economic headwinds from the war in Ukraine,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “A negative assessment of the general economic situation which reflects rising interest rates, high inflation, and the fallout from the war in Ukraine offset improvements in other components.  Nonetheless, the yield spread component (which turns negative when short term yields rise above long term yields, signaling an imminent recession) remained positive despite four rate hikes by the Bank of England. The Conference Board projects real GDP growth of 3.7 percent year over year in 2022, a downgrade of 0.2 percentage points from our April forecast.” 

The UK LEI decreased in March reflecting the likelihood of slower growth due to Bank of England rate hikes and increasing headwinds from the war in Ukraine

The recent trajectory of the LEI points to a loss of upward momentum and increasing downside risks due to the war in Ukraine 

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for The United Kingdom: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 11 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for The United Kingdom include: Unemployment Claimant Counts, Weekly Working Hours, General Economic Situation, Stock Prices, Yield Spread, Productivity, Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations, Housing Sales Expectation.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/    

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