Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the United Kingdom decreased by 0.5 percent in May 2022 to 82.3 (2016=100), following a 0.1 percent decline in April. The LEI contracted by 0.5 percent in the six-month period from November 2021 to May 2022, a reversal from the 2.1 percent increase over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for the United Kingdom remained unchanged in May 2022 at 104.2 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent increase in April. The CEI grew by 0.3 percent in the six-month period from November 2021 to May 2022, the same increase as in the period from May to November 2021.

“The UK LEI decreased again in May, marking the third consecutive decline,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Eroding consumer sentiment about the general economic situation once again made the largest negative contribution to the index. The recent trajectory of the LEI suggests recession risks may be rising amid high inflation, tighter monetary policy, and rising uncertainty. The Conference Board projects real GDP growth of 3.5 percent year-over-year in 2022 slowing to 0.5 percent in 2023.” 

The UK LEI declined again in May reflecting increasing  headwinds to future growth

Eroding consumer confidence was the main driver of the decline in the UK LEI

The year-over-year growth rate of the LEI reflects increasing headwinds for 2022

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for The United Kingdom: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 11 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for The United Kingdom include: Unemployment Claimant Counts, Weekly Working Hours, General Economic Situation, Stock Prices, Yield Spread, Productivity, Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations, Housing Sales Expectation.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

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