Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Australia increased by 0.2 percent in August 2022 to 122.1 (2016=100), following a 0.4 percent increase in July. The LEI increased by 3.4 percent from February to August of 2022, a reversal from the 1.0 percent contraction between August 2021 and February 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Australia increased by 0.2 percent in August 2022 to 112.5 (2016=100), following a 0.1 percent decrease in July. The CEI improved by 1.0 percent in the six-month period from February to August 2022, a decrease from its 1.8 percent growth over the previous six months.

“The LEI for Australia rose in August suggesting the economy should continue to expand in the near term,” said Andrew Dearborn, Economic Research Assistant at The Conference Board. “The trajectory of the LEI for Australia remained positive and the Australian economy has maintained its strength despite growing signs of recessions in other mature economies. As a result, The Conference Board upgraded its forecasts for year-over-year real GDP growth in Australia from 3.6 percent to 4.0 percent in 2022 and from 2.2 percent to 2.4 percent in 2023.”

The Australia LEI increased in August, pointing to improving economic prospects 

Over the last six months strength among the leading indicators was widespread 

The LEI suggests annual growth has slowed from last year’s outsized pace but remains robust

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) Australia: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 7 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Australia include: Yield Spread, Share Prices, M3 Money Supply, Building Approvals, Rural Goods Exports, Sales to Inventories Ratio, and Gross Operating Surplus.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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