Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Australia decreased 0.4 percent in January 2022 to 118.4 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent gain in December. The LEI contracted by 0.3 percent in the six-month period from July 2021 to January 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Australia increased 0.3 percent in January 2022 to 111.5 (2016=100). The CEI grew by 1.3 percent in the six-month period between July 2021 to January 2022.

“With the January decline, the LEI for Australia remained on a downward trajectory suggesting economic growth could slow in the first half of 2022,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Moreover, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has created heightened risks to global growth which could result in slower-than-anticipated economic growth this year. However, rising commodity prices could help offset some of the global challenges ahead for the Australian economy.”

Australia LEI suggested economic growth will face headwinds in 2022, and these downward risks may increase as a result of the Ukraine crisis

The recent trajectory of the Australia LEI suggested that economic growth could slow, and the risks to the outlook may increase as the Ukraine crisis unfolds

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) Australia: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 11 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of business cycle peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Australia include: Yield Spread, Share Prices, M3 Money Supply, Building Approvals, Rural Goods Exports, Sales to Inventories Ratio, and Gross Operating Surplus.

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