Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Australia remained unchanged in January 2023 at 120.4 (2016=100), following a 0.1 percent decrease in December 2022. The LEI fell by 0.6 percent from July 2022 to January 2023, reversing part of the 1.6 percent increase during the six-month period between January and July of 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Australia decreased by 0.2 percent in January 2023 to 113.2 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.3 percent in December of 2022. The CEI improved by 0.4 percent in the six-month period from July 2022 to January 2023, slowing from the previous six-month period, in which the CEI increased by 1.1 percent.

“The LEI for Australia suggests economic growth may moderate in the coming months” said Andrew Dearborn, Economic Research Assistant at The Conference Board. “Declines in rural goods exports and building approvals were offset by slight gains in all other components following a deterioration in the index in December. Australia’s economy still faces headwinds such as record high inflation, turmoil in financial markets in Europe and the United States, as well as potential recessions in major economies. The Conference Board forecast for year-over-year real GDP growth in 2023 has been revised slightly downward to 2.3 from 2.4 percent.”

The LEI for Australia remained unchanged in January

The LEI maintained its December level as component performance was mixed in January

The trajectory of the Australia LEI suggests economic growth should continue in 2023, but it may moderate due to downside risks 

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) Australia: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 7 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Australia include: Yield Spread, Share Prices, M3 Money Supply, Building Approvals, Rural Goods Exports, Sales to Inventories Ratio, and Gross Operating Surplus.

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