Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Australia increased by 0.3 percent in June 2022 to 119.3 (2016=100), after remaining unchanged in May. The LEI increased by 0.6 percent in the first half of 2022, slightly faster than the 0.4 percent growth in the second half of 2021.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Australia increased by 0.3 percent in June 2022 to 112.5 (2016=100), following a 0.4 percent increase in May. The CEI improved by 1.2 percent in the six-month period from December 2021 to June 2022, an increase from its 0.9 percent growth over the previous six months.

“The LEI for Australia rose in June and suggests the economy should keep expanding in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The LEI for Australia improved in four of the last six months and the gains have been widespread among the leading indicators. Despite headwinds to global growth, The Conference Board forecasts real GDP in Australia will grow by 3.8 percent in 2022 before slowing to 2.3 percent in 2023, which are slight upgrades from the previous forecasts of 3.6 and 2.2 percent, respectively.”

The Australia LEI increased in June, pointing to continued growth

Positive contributions from most components more than offset the decline in stock prices

Despite the moderating trajectory, the Australia LEI suggests growth should continue in the near term

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) Australia: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 7 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Australia include: Yield Spread, Share Prices, M3 Money Supply, Building Approvals, Rural Goods Exports, Sales to Inventories Ratio, and Gross Operating Surplus.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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