Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Australia increased by 0.6 percent in March 2022 to 119.3 (2016=100), following a 0.3 percent decline in February. The LEI grew by 0.3 percent in the six-month period from September 2021 to March 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Australia increased by 0.3 percent in March 2022 to 111.6 (2016=100), after remaining unchanged in February. The CEI grew by 2.9 percent in the six-month period between September 2021 and March 2022.

“The second consecutive gain in the LEI for Australia suggests the economic outlook may improve slightly in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “All components of the index contributed positively in March except for rural goods exports. Despite increased risks to global growth this year due to the war in Ukraine, rising commodity prices could help offset some of the global challenges ahead for the Australian economy.”

The increase in the Australia LEI suggests growth may improve in the short-term, likely due to the positive impact from higher commodity prices

The trajectory of the Australia LEI slowed recently, but still points to growth in 2022, which could even improve in the short-term, despite risks due to the war in Ukraine

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) Australia: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 7 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Australia include: Yield Spread, Share Prices, M3 Money Supply, Building Approvals, Rural Goods Exports, Sales to Inventories Ratio, and Gross Operating Surplus.

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