Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Australia, ticked up by 0.1 percent in May 2023 to 118.5 (2016=100), following a 0.3 percent decrease in April. The LEI fell by 1.7 percent from November 2022 to May 2023, an accelerated rate of decline after holding steady over the previous six-month period between May and November 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Australia increased by 0.3 percent in May 2023 to 114.1 (2016=100), after remaining unchanged in April. The CEI grew by 0.4 percent in the six-month period from November 2022 to May 2023, slower than the 1.2 percent gain over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for Australia ticked up in May after declining for four out of five months since December 2022,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “Despite the recent improvement, the six-month growth trajectory of the leading index is in decline, suggesting moderating growth ahead. Tighter monetary policy is likely to weigh on the economy later this year and into next year. Nonetheless, The Conference Board expects real GDP to expand in Australia at rate of 2.2 percent year-over-year in 2023.”

The LEI for Australia improved slightly in May

Only non-financial components of the Australia LEI improved in May

The downward trajectory of the Australia LEI suggests moderating growth in the near-term

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) Australia: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 7 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Australia include: Yield Spread, Share Prices, M3 Money Supply, Building Approvals, Rural Goods Exports, Sales to Inventories Ratio, and Gross Operating Surplus.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org