Global Leading Indicators

This month’s release of the composite economic indexes incorporates annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Australia increased by 0.1 percent in November 2022 to 118.8 (2016=100), following a 0.4 percent increase in October. The LEI decreased by 1.5 percent from May to November of 2022, a reversal from the 1.6 percent increase during the six-month period between November 2021 and May 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Australia increased by 0.3 percent in November 2022 to 113.9 (2016=100), following an identical increase in September. The CEI improved by 1.4 percent in the six-month period from May to November 2022, maintaining similar growth as the previous six-month period, in which the CEI increased by 1.3 percent.

“The LEI for Australia inched up in November, suggesting the economy should continue expanding in the short term,” said Andrew Dearborn, Economic Research Assistant at The Conference Board. “Most of the LEI components contributed positively, except operating profits of nonfinancial corporations, building approvals, and rural good exports. Despite headwinds to the economic outlook, such as increasing interest rates and slowing global growth, The Conference Board maintains its forecasts for year-over-year real GDP growth in Australia of 4.0 percent in 2022 and 2.4 percent in 2023.”

The LEI for Australia shows moderate improvement in November

While most components contributed positively, profits, building approvals, and the money supply turned more negative in recent months

The composite business cycle indexes pre- and post- benchmark revisions: 1960-present

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) Australia: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 7 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Australia include: Yield Spread, Share Prices, M3 Money Supply, Building Approvals, Rural Goods Exports, Sales to Inventories Ratio, and Gross Operating Surplus.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

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