Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Australia increased by 0.4 percent in October 2022 to 118.9 (2016=100), following a 0.8 percent decrease in September. The LEI decreased by 1.2 percent from April to October of 2022, a reversal from the increase of 1.3 percent during the previous six-month period between October 2021 and April 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Australia increased by 0.1 percent in October 2022 to 112.9 (2016=100), following a 0.1 percent increase in September. The CEI improved by 0.8 percent in the six-month period from April to October 2022, but slower than its 3.2 percent growth over the previous six months.

“The LEI for Australia increased moderately in September, pointing to continuing economic expansion in the short term,” said Andrew Dearborn, Economic Research Assistant at The Conference Board. “The LEI rose as all components contributed positively except operating profits of nonfinancial corporations. This increase comes amid uncertainty about global growth next year and restrictive monetary policies around the world. Despite slowing global growth and likely recessions in major economies such as the US and Euro Area, The Conference Board maintains its forecasts for year-over-year real GDP growth in Australia at 4.0 percent in 2022 and 2.4 percent in 2023.”

The Australia LEI increased slightly in October 

While most components contributed positively, profits turned down in recent months

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) Australia: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 7 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Australia include: Yield Spread, Share Prices, M3 Money Supply, Building Approvals, Rural Goods Exports, Sales to Inventories Ratio, and Gross Operating Surplus.

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