Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Australia decreased by 0.2 percent in September 2022 to 121.7 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent increase in August. The LEI increased by 2.4 percent from March to September of 2022, an improvement compared to the previous six months between September 2021 and March 2022 when the LEI was unchanged.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Australia increased by 0.1 percent in September 2022 to 112.5 (2016=100), following a 0.1 percent increase in August. The CEI improved by 0.6 percent in the six-month period from March to September 2022, a significant decrease from its 3.0 percent growth over the previous six months.

“The LEI for Australia declined in September, suggesting the economy could face headwinds in the near term,” said Andrew Dearborn, Economic Research Assistant at The Conference Board. “The trajectory of the LEI moderated as uncertainty weighed on stock prices and money supply contracts. Increased weaknesses in global growth and restrictive monetary policies may undermine the economic rebound from the pandemic-induced recession. Despite dimming prospects for global growth, The Conference Board maintains its forecasts for year-over-year real GDP growth in Australia at 4.0 percent in 2022 and 2.4 percent in 2023.”

The Australia LEI decreased in September, pointing to moderation in short term growth 

Over the last six months declines in share prices, the money supply, and new building approvals were outweighed by positive contributions from all other components

The LEI suggests annual growth has slowed from last year’s outsized pace

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) Australia: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 7 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Australia include: Yield Spread, Share Prices, M3 Money Supply, Building Approvals, Rural Goods Exports, Sales to Inventories Ratio, and Gross Operating Surplus.

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