Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Brazil increased by 0.4 percent in April 2022 to 114.1 (2016=100), after no change in March. However, the LEI contracted by 1.2 percent in the six-month period from October 2021 to April 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Brazil increased by 0.2 percent in April 2022 to 106.8 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.6 percent in March. The CEI grew by 3.1 percent in the six-month period between October 2021 and April 2022.

“The LEI for Brazil is on a slightly increasing trajectory suggesting risks to the growth outlook may ease in the first half of 2022,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “While the impact of the war in Ukraine may increase inflation risks, rising commodity prices, especially for grains, could help offset some of the challenges ahead for the Brazilian economy.”

While the headwinds from the war in Ukraine may slow global growth, the modest improvement in the Brazil LEI suggests a slight upside  

The moderation in the declining trajectory of the Brazil LEI suggests risks to growth may ease in the first half of 2022

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) Brazil: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 6 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil include: Swap Rate - 1 year*, Ibovespa - Bovespa Index, Manufacturing Survey - Expectations Index, Services Sector Survey - Expectations Index, Consumers Survey - Expectations Index, Terms of Trade – Index, Physical Production - Durables Consumer Goods – Index, and the Exports - Quantum - Index.

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