Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, decreased by 0.3 percent in February 2023 to 114.8 (2016=100), after an identical decline in January. The LEI contracted by 1.3 percent in the six-month period from August 2022 to February 2023, a reversal from 1.3 percent growth over the six-month period from February to August 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, remained unchanged in February 2023 at 107.4 (2016=100), after an increase of 0.4 percent in January. The CEI grew by 0.8 percent in the six-month period between August 2022 and February 2023, slower than its 3.2 percent growth rate over the previous six-month span.

“The Brazil LEI decreased in February signaling headwinds await the economy in the short term,” said Andrew Dearborn, Economic Research Assistant at The Conference Board. “Slight gains in service sector expectations, the yield spread, and Brazil’s terms of trade were outweighed by declines or stagnation in every other component. Potential recessions in large economies, along with domestic uncertainties, could create headwinds for economic growth prospects as 2023 progresses. The Conference Board revised its year-over-year GDP growth forecasts for Brazil from 0.2 to a still modest rate of 0.5 percent in 2023.”

The Conference Board/ Fundação Getulio Vargas Brazil LEI decreased again in February

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available.

Large declines in stock prices, as well as consumer and manufacturing expectations, led the drop in the LEI

The annual growth rate for the Brazil LEI turned positive in October but has not gained momentum since then

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI): The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 6 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI) include: Swap Rate - 1 year*, Ibovespa - Bovespa Index, Manufacturing Survey - Expectations Index, Services Sector Survey - Expectations Index, Consumers Survey - Expectations Index, Terms of Trade – Index, Physical Production - Durables Consumer Goods – Index, and the Exports - Quantum - Index.

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Created in 1944, FGV is a Brazilian private higher education institution, think tank and producer of statistics, with a mission "to foster Brazil’s socioeconomic development." The Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) is FGV´s arm with the mission to produce and disseminate high-quality economic statistics and studies that are relevant to improve policies and private action in Brazil. www.fgv.br/ibre