Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, decreased by 0.1 percent in January to 115.4 (2016=100), after declining by 0.1 percent in December 2022. The LEI remained unchanged in the six-month period from July of 2022 to January 2023, following the 1.3 percent growth over the six-month period from January to July 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, rose by 0.3 percent in January to 109.4 (2016=100), after an increase of 0.9 percent in December 2022. The CEI grew by 2.9 percent in the six-month period between July 2022 and January 2023, somewhat slower than its 3.1 percent rate in the previous six-month span.

“In Brazil, volatile non-financial data drove the decrease in the LEI in January, although financial components and exports continued to show strength,” said Andrew Dearborn, Economic Research Assistant at The Conference Board. “Consumer and service sector surveys weighed heavily on the LEI, a turnaround from recent months when consumer expectations led the LEI’s gains. Possible recessions in large economies (specifically the US and Euro Area) along with domestic uncertainties could create headwinds for economic growth prospects as 2023 progresses. The Conference Board forecasts year-over-year real GDP growth in Brazil was 3.1 percent in 2022 and will slow to 0.2 percent in 2023.”

The Conference Board/ Fundação Getulio Vargas Brazil LEI decreased again in January

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available 

Large declines in consumer and service sector sentiment offset gains in financial components, exports, and manufacturing expectations

The trajectory of the Brazil LEI turned positive in December, but still reflected uncertainty in January

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI): The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 6 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI) include: Swap Rate - 1 year*, Ibovespa - Bovespa Index, Manufacturing Survey - Expectations Index, Services Sector Survey - Expectations Index, Consumers Survey - Expectations Index, Terms of Trade – Index, Physical Production - Durables Consumer Goods – Index, and the Exports - Quantum - Index.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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ABOUT FGV IBRE

Created in 1944, FGV is a Brazilian private higher education institution, think tank and producer of statistics, with a mission "to foster Brazil’s socioeconomic development." The Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) is FGV´s arm with the mission to produce and disseminate high-quality economic statistics and studies that are relevant to improve policies and private action in Brazil. www.fgv.br/ibre