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For Release 10:00 AM ET, August 14, 2024
Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, increased by 0.5 percent in July 2024 to 123.9 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.4 percent in June. Nevertheless, the LEI contracted by 1.2 percent over the six-month period between January and July 2024, partly reversing an expansion of 3.4 percent over the previous six-month period.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, remained unchanged in July 2024 at 115.3 (2016=100), following an increase of 0.5 percent in June. Overall, the CEI grew by 3.0 percent over the six-month period between January and July 2024, a slightly faster rate than the 2.8 percent increase over the previous six-month period.
“The Brazil LEI increased again in July and has now fully recovered from a sharp drop in May when devastating floods hit southern Brazil,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate at The Conference Board. “The July gain was driven by positive contributions from majority of the components except for the swap rate and business expectations in the service sector. The Index has been very volatile since the beginning of the year, but the underlying trajectory points to some moderation ahead. Indeed, despite the recent recovery, the substantial monthly declines in February and May 2024 continue to weigh on the LEI’s six-month growth rate, which became more negative, while the annual growth rate continued to decelerate. Overall, the Index suggest that economic activity should continue to expand in Brazil but likely at a slower pace.”
The next release is scheduled for Friday, September 13, 2024, at 10 A.M. ET.
*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available.
*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Brazil
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.
The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around six months.
The eight components of the Leading Economic Index® for Brazil are:
The six components of the Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil are:
To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org
ABOUT FGV IBRE
Created in 1944, FGV is a Brazilian private higher education institution, think tank and producer of statistics, with a mission "to foster Brazil’s socioeconomic development." The Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) is FGV´s arm with the mission to produce and disseminate high-quality economic statistics and studies that are relevant to improve policies and private action in Brazil. www.fgv.br/ibre
With graph and summary table
August 14, 2024
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