Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Brazil increased by 0.1 percent in June 2022 to 112.7 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.5 percent in May. The LEI decreased by 0.8 percent in the six-month period from December 2021 to June 2022, an improvement from its decline of 6.4 percent over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Brazil increased by 1.7 percent in June to 111.0 (2016=100), after increasing by 1.2 percent in May. The CEI grew by 5.9 percent in the six-month period between December 2021 to June 2022, much faster than its 0.5 percent over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for Brazil was essentially flat since January despite the volatility introduced by global uncertainty and gyrations in commodity markets,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Improving exports and consumer expectations drove the slight gain in the leading index in June. High inflation risks, tightening monetary policy, and slowing global growth still pose risks to the economic outlook for Brazil.”

The Brazil LEI improved slightly in June, but the economy is still facing headwinds

Stronger exports paired with improved expectations were the main drivers of the slight improvement in LEI

The Brazil LEI suggests risks to real GDP growth may remain in the near term

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) Brazil: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 6 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil include: Swap Rate - 1 year*, Ibovespa - Bovespa Index, Manufacturing Survey - Expectations Index, Services Sector Survey - Expectations Index, Consumers Survey - Expectations Index, Terms of Trade – Index, Physical Production - Durables Consumer Goods – Index, and the Exports - Quantum - Index.

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