Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Brazil decreased by 0.4 percent in March 2022 to 112.6 (2016=100), following a 0.4 percent gain in February. The LEI contracted by 3.8 percent in the six-month period from September 2021 to March 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Brazil increased by 1.2 percent in March 2022 to 106.8 (2016=100), after declining by 0.6 percent in February. The CEI grew by 3.3 percent in the six-month period between September 2021 and March 2022.

“The LEI for Brazil remains on a downward trajectory, reflecting weakness in nonfinancial components. This points to slow economic growth in the first half of 2022,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Moreover, the war in Ukraine could lead to heightened risks to economic growth from higher inflation. However, rising commodity prices, especially for grains, could help offset some of the challenges ahead for the Brazilian economy.”

 Brazil LEI remained essentially flat since November, signaling a moderation in growth risks, but the Ukraine war created new risks to global growth in 2022

The trajectory of the Brail LEI continued to decline (despite a moderation in the rate of decline), suggesting risks to growth may ease in the first half of 2022

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) Brazil: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 6 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil include: Swap Rate - 1 year*, Ibovespa - Bovespa Index, Manufacturing Survey - Expectations Index, Services Sector Survey - Expectations Index, Consumers Survey - Expectations Index, Terms of Trade – Index, Physical Production - Durables Consumer Goods – Index, and the Exports - Quantum - Index.

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