Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, increased by 1.3 percent in March 2023 to 116.0 (2016=100), after a decline of 0.6 percent in February. The LEI contracted by 1.3 percent in the six-month period from September 2022 to March 2023, a reversal from the 2.3 percent growth over the six-month period from March to September 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, increased by 0.2 percent in March 2023 to 105.7 (2016=100), after a decrease of 1.5 percent in February. The CEI declined by 1.1 percent in the six-month period between September 2022 and March 2023, a reversal from its 2.9 percent growth rate over the previous six-month span.

“The Brazil LEI increased in March signaling that recent economic headwinds could ease in the near term,” said Andrew Dearborn, Economic Research Assistant at The Conference Board. “However, the LEI’s six-month growth rate remained negative, suggesting the Brazilian economy still faces downside risks. Potential recessions in large economies, along with domestic uncertainties, could still pose threats to growth as 2023 continues. The Conference Board forecasts year-over-year GDP growth for Brazil at a subdued rate of 0.5 percent in 2023.”

The Conference Board/ Fundação Getulio Vargas Brazil LEI increased in March, the first monthly increase since September of 2022

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available.

The LEI climbed as all components except stock prices contributed positively in March, a turnaround from contributions over the last 6 months

The annual growth rate for the Brazil LEI has stagnated over the last few months

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI): The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 6 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI) include: Swap Rate - 1 year*, Ibovespa - Bovespa Index, Manufacturing Survey - Expectations Index, Services Sector Survey - Expectations Index, Consumers Survey - Expectations Index, Terms of Trade – Index, Physical Production - Durables Consumer Goods – Index, and the Exports - Quantum - Index.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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ABOUT FGV IBRE

Created in 1944, FGV is a Brazilian private higher education institution, think tank and producer of statistics, with a mission "to foster Brazil’s socioeconomic development." The Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) is FGV´s arm with the mission to produce and disseminate high-quality economic statistics and studies that are relevant to improve policies and private action in Brazil. www.fgv.br/ibre