Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Brazil increased by 0.2 percent in May 2022 to 113.2 (2016=100), after declining by 0.8 percent in April 2022. The LEI increased by 0.4 percent in the six-month period from November 2021 to May 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Brazil increased by 1.9 percent in May 2022 to 109.9 (2016=100), after increasing by 1.7 percent in April 2022. The CEI grew by 5.7 percent in the six-month period between November 2021 and May 2022.

“The LEI for Brazil has been volatile but essentially flat over the past few months.  The May gain was driven primarily by easing pessimism about the near-term outlook,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Improving expectations for manufacturing and commodity exports suggest the Brazilian economy could weather the challenges in the global economy posed by high inflation risks, tightening monetary policy, COVID-19, and supply chain disruptions.”

The Brazil LEI improved in May suggesting a slight upside to the economic outlook

The Brazil LEI suggests risks to real GDP growth may ease in the near term

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) Brazil: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 6 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil include: Swap Rate - 1 year*, Ibovespa - Bovespa Index, Manufacturing Survey - Expectations Index, Services Sector Survey - Expectations Index, Consumers Survey - Expectations Index, Terms of Trade – Index, Physical Production - Durables Consumer Goods – Index, and the Exports - Quantum - Index.

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