Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below:

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas,increased by 0.4 percent in May 2023 to 117.2 (2016=100), after remaining unchanged in April, based on revised data. The LEI grew by 1.3 percent in the six-month period from November 2022 to May 2023, a continuation of a similar 1.3 percent rate of growth over the previous six-month period from May to November 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, increased by 1.0 percent in May 2023 to 109.9 (2016=100), after an increase of 0.7 percent in April. The CEI grew by 2.6 percent in the six-month period between November 2022 and May 2023, faster than its 1.9 percent growth rate over the previous six-month span.

“The Brazil LEI increased in May driven by favorable services and consumer expectations, and stock prices” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “The positive trajectory of the LEI in the beginning of this year suggests that economic headwinds are easing. However, potential recessions in large global economies, tumult in domestic politics, and decreasing global demand could still pose challenges to growth in the near term. The Conference Board expects that real GDP in Brazil will grow by 0.9 percent year-over-year in 2023, an upward revision from 0.5 percent, previously forecasted.”

The Conference Board/Fundação Getulio Vargas Brazil LEI rose in May

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available.

The increase in May was driven by favorable services and consumer expectations, and stock prices 

The trajectory of the Brazil LEI turned positive in Q1, along with slightly improved GDP growth

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI): The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 6 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI) include: Swap Rate - 1 year*, Ibovespa - Bovespa Index, Manufacturing Survey - Expectations Index, Services Sector Survey - Expectations Index, Consumers Survey - Expectations Index, Terms of Trade – Index, Physical Production - Durables Consumer Goods – Index, and the Exports - Quantum - Index.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org

ABOUT FGV IBRE

Created in 1944, FGV is a Brazilian private higher education institution, think tank and producer of statistics, with a mission "to foster Brazil’s socioeconomic development." The Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) is FGV´s arm with the mission to produce and disseminate high-quality economic statistics and studies that are relevant to improve policies and private action in Brazil. www.fgv.br/ibre